The concept is universal: buy low, sell high. Stock traders, investors, business owners, E-bay junkies, really anyone who participates in market activities lives by the same motto. Sports bettors are no different. We look for situations where teams are under or overvalued and try to use that in our handicapping. Every pick we make must take a team's relative value into account. Since lines are set primarily on the basis of power ratings and public opinion, finding situations where we can take advantage of value misconceptions can lead to a barrage of fairly easy winners.

Most novice handicappers begin betting on sports with a simple concept in mind. "This team is great, I'll bet on them; this other team sucks, I'll bet against them." This mentality alone causes the financial demise of many beginning 'cappers. Good teams do not necessarily cover the spread more than bad teams. In fact, bad teams that compete and play hard are often the best choice for a wager. For example, the Chicago Bears in football and the Dallas Mavericks in hoops both had excellent records against the spread (ATS) during the 1999-2000 campaign. Meanwhile, very good teams like the Indianapolis Colts and LA Lakers had terrible ATS records down the stretch of their seasons. Let's take a look at various ways to determine and take advantage of teams with a misrepresented value at various points during a season.

During the early part of the season, look for teams that are playing much better or worse than expected. Many novice 'cappers concentrate on how a team performed the previous year, but in this era of salary cap constraints and constant roster turnover, teams NEVER perform at the same level in two consecutive years. In addition, teams that performed well the previous year are no longer a good value - you are laying a much higher price with them, especially at the beginning of the next campaign. For example, within the 1st two weeks of the '99 season, it was obvious that the St Louis Rams were a much-improved team from their cellar-dwelling predecessor, while the Minnesota Vikings were no longer the dominant team they had been in '98. Thus there was significant value in betting on the Rams and against the Vikings, as evidenced by the Rams 6-0 ATS mark in the early season, while the Vikings were 0-5-1 ATS. Remember, these teams were playing at a different level than their perceived value, thus they were easy money-makers for those who paid attention.

As the season wears on, different teams begin to exhibit signs of being under or over valued. Good teams that got off to a rough start become excellent choices to wager on. For example, look for squads that faced a tough early season schedule, or had a few "bad beats", or have begun to jell under a new system. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks both enjoyed nice ATS runs in October and November as they adjusted to their new coaches' system, and they both had considerable value because of their slow starts. At the same time, look for teams that started off well, but were facing a rough scheduling stretch, a lack of depth due to injuries or just weren't as good as their early season results had indicated. Both the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys had 1-5 ATS runs in the middle of the season after fast starts. Again, the goal is to be betting on teams that are better than the public and lines makers' perception, and bet against those that are worse than that same perception.

In the latter part of the season, the great teams rarely offer much value, as bookmakers adjust their lines upward. Similarly, those wagering on teams fighting for playoff or bowl berths are paying an extra price as well, and these teams often are just a step above mediocrity. Oftentimes these teams become 'bet-against' as the price you have to pay to bet on them becomes far greater than their actual value. At the same time, look for bad teams that seem to have quit - lines makers have difficulty adjusting their lines far enough downward to fully compensate for a team that's just playing out the string - witness the LA Clippers or Golden State Warriors ATS records in March and April (not to mention the New Orleans Saints). With all these bet-against, there are places to find late season value. Look for bad teams that are still playing hard and good teams that are finally hitting their stride after some mid-season swings. The San Diego Chargers were an excellent example of the first group, covering their last 6 games, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans showed the kind of ball they were capable of playing down the stretch run, both covering 7 of 8 in November and December.
 
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